Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

814
FXUS66 KHNX 150640
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1040 PM PST Sun Dec 14 2025

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section Updated

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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Fog, while dense at times, and low clouds will continue each
night and morning across the San Joaquin Valley into the
foothills up to 1,500 feet through Tuesday.

2. Above average temperatures will continue across the
mountains and desert until Tuesday, as the high pressure
pattern persists over the region.

3. Precipitation makes its return to Central California by the
middle of the week after having a dry start to December.


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.DISCUSSION...
The consistent stable pattern over the southwest will continue
through at least the beginning of next week, with strong ridging
keeping the low stratus clouds in place for the center of the San
Joaquin Valley with dense fog on the edge of the Valley from
elevations of 500 feet to 1500 feet. This stratus will also
lower further down during the nighttime hours and lead to fog in
the Valley itself.

A small pattern change is likely in store for Central
California, with the ridging over the Southwest weakening
somewhat as a small trough passes through the Pacific Northwest.
This weaking may lead to slight troughing in Northern California
into Central California, which may lead to a small amount of
precipitation for the northern-most Counties in our CWA, mainly
in Mariposa County and Yosemite Nation Park. This small
disturbance may also provide elevated winds aloft to break the
inversion over the Valley and lead to the stratus deck clearing
out, though it`s unclear if those winds will be strong enough.

The next potential system is expected to move through the region
by Friday afternoon into the weekend, with most long term
ensemble models, including the Euro, GFS and Canadian, all
indicating precipitation from the next weekend onwards into day
14 on the 28th of December. This kind of agreement shows a
confidence form these ensembles that precipitation may occur,
even if the amount is not agreed upon just yet. This time period
will be watched closely for consistency over model runs, which
would strengthen the confidence in that forecast.

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.AVIATION...
IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail
for much of the San Joaquin Valley during the next 24 hours,
with a 30 to 55 percent chance of VLIFR in dense fog returning
through 19Z Monday. IFR to LIFR conditions will also persist in
the coastal ranges, Sierra foothills, and the Kern County
mountains due to low clouds. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail in the Sierra Nevada and in the Kern County mountain and
desert areas over the next 24 hours.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/14/2025 13:32
EXPIRES: 12/15/2025 23:59

On Monday December 15 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Monday for CAZ301>307-
309>316.
&&

$$

public...EW
aviation....JPK

weather.gov/hanford