Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS66 KHNX 170532
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1032 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Minor Heat Risk over this week. Temperatures drop today through
Friday before a warmup over the weekend.

2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect for San Luis Reservoir until
midnight Thursday.

3. Gusty winds are likely this evening through late tonight in
localized regions of the Central Valley.

4. There is a potential for a moderate heat risk mid through late
week next week, but confidence is less that 30%.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strap in folks, because the temperature rollercoaster isn`t done
just yet. The trough that is bringing temperatures to about
5-10 degrees below normal will be moving out of California by
Friday morning. High temperatures on Thursday have only a 20-30%
chance of exceeding 85 degrees. The few wispy clouds that were
present today will also be moving out of the area, so tomorrow
is expected to be clear. Now that sounds like absolutely
wonderful temperatures! Winds are also dying down, so the Lake
Wind Advisory will be expiring at midnight.

As the trough leaves, it`ll allow for some weak ridging to take
its place. The ridge will bring temperatures back to normal with
a gradual warmup starting on Friday and likely peaking on
Sunday. There`s a 60-70% chance that temperatures exceed the 92
degrees on Sunday. Keep in mind, the low 90s is normal for the
Valley. After a few days in the low to mid 80s, the temperature
difference will surely be noticed. However, after Sunday, models
are in pretty good agreement that a shortwave trough coming in
and lowering temperatures again, teasing Central California with
yet another taste of fall. These same models are also in
agreement that the trough will be rather short-lived, as by
Tuesday, ridging is once again becoming the dominant feature. As
of writing, there`s a 10% chance that by Tuesday, the Central
Valley could once again be flirting with the mid to upper 90s.
The Climate Prediction Center has the Central Valley in 50-60%
chance of above normal temperatures in their 6-10 day outlook.
However, there`s also a 40-50% chance of precipitation being
above normal for the same time frame. As such, we will continue
to monitor the situation.




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.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ300.
&&

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public...BB
aviation....BB

weather.gov/hanford