Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

527
FXUS66 KHNX 020001
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
401 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation and Air Quality Issues Sections.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dense Fog with a Very High Transportation Risk with
visibility down to zero each morning through next week in the
San Joaquin Valley.

2. Dry conditions and near to above average temperatures
continue for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With the axis of the persistent ridge pattern shifted east, a
disturbance has been allowed to move ashore this Sunday. While a
slight disruption in the fog and cooling of temperatures will
be the weather elements mainly influenced by the disturbance,
winds on Saturday were also affected by the approaching
disturbance. Yet, the favored areas around Kern County where
winds gusted between 15 and 30 mph on Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this point, ensemble upper-air analysis does show
the disturbances energy remaining over Extreme Northern
California before moving into the Great Basin.

While no precipitation will make it this far south, the
disturbance will influence temperatures for the early part of
this week. Ensemble analysis then has the high pressure ridge
pattern bouncing back on Monday as the cooling trend bottoms-
out. While temperatures will struggle to reach 65 degrees on
Monday, probability of exceedance of reaching 65 begins its rise
on Tuesday as percentages approach 90 percent on Tuesday. The
remainder of the week will have probabilities of reaching 90
degrees in the 90-100 percent range. While fog will continue all
week under a Rex Blocking High pressure pattern, a disturbance
reaching the West Coast next weekend will re-introduce winds and
cooling across Central California.


&&


.AVIATION...
There is at least a 40-50% chance for returning to IFR after
08Z Monday. By 11Z to 12Z Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of
reaching VLIFR conditions in dense fog. These conditions will
persist past 19Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
for the Sierra Nevada, Coastal Range, and Mojave Desert for the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday February 2 2026, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove
Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern
Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Madera,
Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern
(Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon PST Monday
for CAZ301>303-305>307-309>316.
&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....EW

weather.gov/hanford